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U.S. heat pump shipments remained strong in the first half of 2026, despite the expiration of the federal 25C tax credit at the end of 2025. A Building Decarbonization Coalition report says shipments are on track to match or exceed the technology’s best year, though final 2026 totals are not yet available.
U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026, despite the end of the federal tax credit that had offered households up to $2,000 toward the cost of a qualifying system. A recent Building Decarbonization Coalition report says the technology is on track to match or exceed its best year, although the final annual tally is not yet known.
The coalition’s report relies on shipment figures from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group that represents most of the U.S. market, according to Canary Media’s account of the report. The figures indicate that shipments remained strong during the first six months of 2026. They do not yet establish where the full year will finish.
The federal 25C tax credit expired at the end of 2025, seven years earlier than the deadline set under the Biden administration, the source report says. The credit had reduced the purchase cost of heat pumps by as much as $2,000. The change came amid the repeal of other federal incentives for household clean-energy equipment, including rooftop solar and batteries.
Heat pumps provide both heating and cooling and can replace gas furnaces in some homes. The shipment trend therefore matters to households weighing equipment choices and to contractors and manufacturers planning sales and installation work. The report points to sustained shipments after the credit’s expiration, but shipment counts alone do not explain why buyers continued to purchase the systems.
Shipments Continue Without the Federal Discount
The early-2026 figures suggest that the tax credit’s expiration has not, so far, been followed by an immediate collapse in heat pump shipments. That is relevant for homeowners considering replacement equipment, as well as for installers and suppliers who need to judge demand. Still, shipments are not the same measure as completed installations or household adoption, and the available report does not show how the loss of the credit may have affected individual buyers or different regions.
The finding also bears on the role of federal incentives in clean-energy purchases. If demand holds through the year, that would be consistent with the possibility that other factors — including local climate, electricity prices, and contractor availability — help sustain purchases. It would not by itself prove that tax credits had little effect: the data provided do not compare what happened with a counterfactual in which the credit remained in place.
Some households may still have access to state or utility incentives, according to the source report. Those programs, along with local policies and increased contractor familiarity, could help support demand after the federal benefit ended. The scale of their contribution is not established in the cited material.
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The 25C Credit Ended in 2025
The 25C credit had been one part of the federal support available for home energy equipment. For heat pumps, it could reduce the cost to a household by up to $2,000. The credit ended on Dec. 31, 2025, earlier than the Biden administration’s planned expiration date, according to Canary Media.
In discussing why shipments could remain strong without the credit, the source report cites research and commentary by Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Davis has argued that heat pump adoption is influenced by geography, climate, and electricity prices, and that these factors may matter more to household decisions than subsidies. The source also reports that contractors interviewed by the trade publication ACHR News often raised the credit with customers themselves, rather than customers asking about it.
The cited material describes several possible supports for demand beyond the federal credit: state and utility incentives in some areas, local ordinances encouraging a move away from fossil-fuel heating, and contractors’ growing familiarity with heat pumps. It does not quantify how much each factor has contributed to shipments.
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Full-Year Results and Credit Effects
Final 2026 shipment totals have not been reported in the source material, so it remains uncertain whether the year will match or exceed the technology’s previous best. The coalition’s projection is based on first-half performance and could change if demand shifts during the rest of the year.
The available information also does not establish how much of the sustained shipment level is attributable to state or utility incentives, local ordinances, contractor experience, or other market conditions. Nor does it show how many households would have bought a heat pump if the federal credit had remained available. Shipment data describe equipment moving through the market, not the full reasons behind each purchase.
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The Final 2026 Shipment Tally
The next key measure is the full-year 2026 shipment total. The source report says to watch for that final tally, which will show whether early-year strength carried through the second half and whether shipments matched or exceeded the technology’s previous best year.
Further data or analysis would be needed to separate the effect of the expired federal credit from other influences, including local incentives and changes in contractor capacity. Until those figures are available, the early-2026 trend is evidence that shipments held up after the credit ended, not a definitive assessment of what the credit did or did not contribute to sales.
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Key Questions
Did heat pump shipments fall after the federal tax credit expired?
Not in the first half of 2026, according to the Building Decarbonization Coalition report described by Canary Media. The report says shipments stayed strong, but it does not provide a final full-year result.
How much was the federal heat pump tax credit?
The federal 25C tax credit could reduce the cost of a heat pump by up to $2,000. It expired at the end of 2025, according to the source report.
Does strong shipment data prove the tax credit did not matter?
No. The shipment figures show that demand remained strong in the first half of 2026, but they do not establish what sales would have been if the credit had continued or explain the choices of individual households.
Can homeowners still get help paying for a heat pump?
The source report says some households can still access state or utility incentives. Availability depends on location; the cited material does not list programs or confirm eligibility for particular households.
When will it be clear whether 2026 was a record year?
That will depend on the final shipment figures for the year. The source report says 2026 is on track to match or exceed the technology’s best year, but the full-year tally is still pending.
Source: rss
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